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Wally's avatar

"...it would have to be able to attack the continental United States. If you know anything about geography and military strategy, you will know this is basically impossible."

I somewhat disagree as China will launch a massive cyber warfare attack hoping to cripple America's infrastructure, which is why hardening IT infrastructure is critical, but it is relatively easy and inexpensive to accomplish.

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Anecdotage's avatar

I think we need to look at scenarios in the gray zone around what constitutes a blockade of Taiwan by the PRC.

It's easier for the PRC to deploy ships around Taiwan then it is for the US to counter, and the logistics are all in the PRC's favor. Thus their optimal strategy would be to exhaust the US ability to replenish naval forces around Taiwan in a way that doesn't commit them to an invasion.

The right strategy is not to fight the United States for control of the waters around Taiwan, it's to wear the American people down to the point that they see sending ships to defend a Taiwan that isn't being attacked as boring and costly. Once the will of the American people is broken, in the way that it was in Afghanistan in a different kind of forever war, the United States will withdraw and the PRC can move in at their leisure.

The PRC also has the ability to make military and coercive economic moves to unsettle potential Taiwan allies in the region and to crash the Taiwan economy. Again, these don't need to take the country to the brink of war, they only need to be bad enough to create a failed economy and disinvestment. If the people of Taiwan are forced to live for a few years in economic misery then the invasion calculus may get easier as more Taiwanese become apathetic or the PRC creates a fifth column movement.

What vitiates against all this is that a logical strategy for the PRC to reclaim Taiwan does not intersect at all with Xi's personal agenda or actuarial timetable. It's highly likely that if Xi it's going to pull the trigger then he'll choose a manufactured crisis and an accelerated timeline.

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